[文章譯介]股神巴菲特的股息理論 : 來自2013年致股東信函的思考

Warren Buffett on Dividends: Ideas from his 2013 Letters to Shareholders

股神巴菲特的股息理論 : 來自2013年致股東信函的思考

Yesterday, Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.B) 2013 letter to shareholders was posted on the company’s website. As a long-term follower of Warren Buffett, I voraciously read through every single word of it. I was particularly excited that Buffett spoke about dividends and dividend paying stocks on several occasions in the letter. His standing on paying dividends have always perplexed investors in Berkshire. In fact, I have even referred to him as a closet dividend investor before.  In this article, I am going to post my thoughts on the letter.

昨天在波克夏・哈薩威公司Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.B)網站發發佈了2013給股東的信。身為股神巴菲特的長期追隨者,我飢渴似的拜讀每一字句。讓我特別感到興奮的是股神在信中曾多次談到股息及配息股。他對配股的立場總是困惑著波克夏的投資者。事實上,我之前甚至稱他是位空談的股息投資客。我將這篇文章分享我對這封信的想法。

At the very bottom of the letter, Warren Buffett discusses why it makes sense for Berkshire Hathaway to continue not paying dividends. In essence, he comes to the conclusion that reinvesting all profits at above average returns will serve shareholders better in the long run, than paying dividends. This reinvestment of capital refers to either direct reinvestment back into the business that generated them or by purchasing new businesses that generate high returns on equity.

在這封信的後段,巴菲特討論了波克夏・哈薩威不繼續支付股息的意義。在本質上,他得出了一個結論,以長遠來看再投資這些利潤可以比配息回饋更多給股東。這種資本再投資,可以指直接重新投資回本業或是購買新的事業產生高收益回報到股本上。

This sounds like a reasonable idea, and is one that Buffett has been very successful at since the mid 1960’s

One of Buffett’s arguments against paying distributions was that investors, who require income, can easily afford to sell a portion of their shares every year.

In his theoretical example, all earnings were reinvested at a constant rate of return, and the stock price always traded at a premium to book value.

The main issue I had with his thinking was that in the real world, things are not linear at all.

Stock prices fluctuate wildly above and below book values, and reinvested rates of returns are often equally volatile.

Overall, Warren Buffett is not interested in distributing profits to shareholders in the form of dividends, because he believes that he would be much better at allocating cash than ordinary shareholders.

While plowing all of realized earnings back into the business or in new ventures comes with its own sets of risks and limitations, Buffett has proven his uncanny ability to reinvest successfully.

He is after all, the Oracle of Omaha, and the most successful US investor.

Unfortunately, he is in his 80s, and is close to retirement.

As a result, given the massive scale of Berkshire today, the success of future acquisitions might not lead to similar extraordinary performance.

In addition, although keeping all earnings into Berkshire might have worked for Buffett and his followers, there are only a handful of companies which have managed to do the same, and be successful at it.

In your typical US Corporation, the overpaid management is greedy for acquisitions and empire building at all costs, since they have very little if any actual stake in the business.

Expanding your business is often subject to limitations, as I explained in an earlier article.

這聽起來是個合理且是巴菲特從1960中期開始就一直很成功的理念。

巴菲特對於支付分配的其中一個論點是那些需要收入的投資者,可以每年輕鬆負擔出售其部分股票。

在他理論中的例子,將所有收益以固定回報率再投資,這些股價價值總是高於帳面值。

我在他的理論中找到主要的問題是,現實生活中,事情不全是直線的。

股價使得帳面價格大起大落,往往投資報酬率也是同樣的波動著。

(Fluctuate波動)

(volatile :Tending to vary often or widely, as in price:)
易波動的,不穩定的:易於經常或大幅度變化的,如價格:

總體來說,巴菲特對於利潤分配給股東分紅的形式並不感興趣,因為巴菲特認為他比一般股東更會分配現金。

即使將所有已實現的收益再投資回本業會是新的企業必有一定的風險與侷限,巴菲特已成功的證明了他不可思議的再投資能力。

正統的財經媒體尊稱他為「奧馬哈先知」(The Oracle of Omaha)或「奧馬哈的聖人」(The Sage of Omaha)。

他畢竟是「奧馬哈先知」,美國最成功的投資者。

不幸的是,他是在他的80年代,現在已經幾乎是半退休狀態。

因此,鑑於波克夏今日的大規模,未來收購的成功可能不會帶來類似非凡的業績。

(acquisitions 收購)

此外,雖然為波克夏保留了所有盈利已為巴菲特與他的追隨者帶來顯著效益,但以相同手法操作的公司只有少數獲得成功。

典型的美國公司,會不惜一切代價貪婪的超額收購和建造自己的帝國,因為對於所收購的事業,很少握有實際股權。

正如我在稍前的文章中所解釋,擴大企業往往受到許多限制。

In essence, Buffett’s Berkshire is acquiring businesses, shares in businesses with its excess cashflows that didn’t need to be invested in its existing subsidiaries.

In a previous article I have argued that dividend investors can similarly create their own mini-Berkshire style portfolios, by investing in dividend paying stocks, and reinvesting distributions into attractively-priced shares.

Incidentally, the largest four portfolio investments include Wells Fargo (WFC), IBM (IBM), Coca-Cola (KO) and American Express (AXP), all of which pay dividends. In the case of Coca- Cola and IBM, we have companies that have raised them for years if not decades.

These businesses and shares generate additional cashflows that need to be reinvested. In his letter he said the following:

“Most companies pay consistent dividends, generally trying to increase them annually and cutting them very reluctantly.

Our “Big Four” portfolio companies follow this sensible and understandable approach and, in certain cases, also repurchase shares quite aggressively.

We applaud their actions and hope they continue on their present paths. We like increased dividends, and we love repurchases at appropriate prices.”

Buffett focuses on businesses with the potential to generate growing cashflows over time with limited needs for investment, and then utilizes his experience as a capital allocator to reinvest profits into more income generating assets.

大體而言,巴菲特的波克夏公司收購企業及企業股份,其多餘的現金流是沒有必要投資於現有的子公司。

在前面的文章中,我一直認為股息的投資者同樣可以創建屬於自己的迷你版波克夏型式的投資組合,利用投資配息的股票,再分佈投資到價格誘人的股票上。

順便一提,最大的四組合投資包括富國銀行(WFC),IBM(IBM),可口可樂(KO)和美國運通(AXP),上述這些股票都會配息。在可口可樂和IBM的案例,我們多年甚至幾十年提高對他們的持股。

這些企業和股票所衍生的額外現金流需要被再投資。在他的信中他提到以下的內容 :

大部分的公司奉行穩定配息,並試圖逐步提高分紅,卻很不情願的削減分紅。
我們的四大投資組合就遵循了類似可理解的模式,有時候,還非常積極的購回股票。

我們拍手贊成他們現行的策略並希望他們繼續保持。我們喜歡配息增加,我們也喜歡以合理的價格買回股票。
巴菲特的重點放在那些可以在有限的投資需求內逐步增加現金流的潛力企業,然後利用他的經驗做為資本分配器,再將利潤投資到更多的創收資產。

原文出處:http://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/2013/03/warren-buffett-on-dividends-ideas-from.html

(翻譯人員:張筱婷)

本文翻譯如有錯漏之處,請不吝來信指教!



小樂

小樂,天蠍座,台南人,喜歡閱讀與寫作,鼓勵散戶們多作投資思維。

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