strategy-planning-blog

[文章譯介]My Strategy我的投資策略

My Strategy
My strategy involves buying companies which have a history of consistently increasing their dividend payments going back over as many years as possible . Depending on the period that you are focusing one there’s not a lot of companies that might fit your criteria. S&P has several lists which are worth focusing on – companies which have consistently increased their dividend over the past 10 years, S&P Dividend Aristocrats and S&P high-yield Dividend Aristocrats. The positive thing about the last two lists is that they show you stocks that have raised their dividends consistently over the past 25 years! Remember i do not just focus on high-yielding stocks. A stock which shows you a 10% dividend yield when the average yield out there is 2% is most likely a stock, for which the market is telling you that there is a very high chance that the dividend payment would be cut and your yield would decrease. I would rather buy a stock that pays me around 2-3% currently, at a time when fixed income can provide me with a 4.5% – 5.00% yield, BUT which would increase its dividend payments in the future.
There are other lists of stocks which are considered dividend achievers. Another one worth focusing on is the Mergent’s Dividend Achievers 50 and High-Growth Rate Dividend Achievers. The issue with those lists lies in the fact that it gives you only companies which have raised their dividend at least over the past 10 years. There are at least 300 such companies in the US currently, so for a small investor like me, this is a pretty big universe of stocks. The S&P Dividend Aristocrats and the High-Yield Dividend Aristocrats on the other hand contain 50 or so stocks each, which is a more manageable list to follow.
In my strategy, I would focus on buying stocks which give you at least the same yield as the broad S&P500 index, as represented by SPY. Furthermore, i would give preference to the dividend aristocrats and the high-yield dividend aristocrats over the other dividend achievers. In addition, I will look for companies, whose dividend payout ratio does not exceed 55-60% at the time of purchase. I would also try to equally weight my purchases. So for example if I invest 100 dollars per week, and I have a list of 52 achievers that fit my criteria, i would buy a different stock each week in a given year. I will not re balance my portfolio though, since this will increase my trading costs; it also runs contrary to the old adage of “cut your losers and let your profits ride". I will try to diversify across sectors, without being too overweight in a certain sector like financials or utilities, which could prove to be easier to say than achieve. I will also look for an average dividend growth of at least 3% (which is the average long-term inflation rate). However, I might consider buying any stock that shows a growing dividend, even by a single percent per year, provided that the company spots an above average yield. Even though the passive dividend income will rise much slower, your money will compound at a higher rate for a long period of time. A very good dividend stock candidate for purchase would be one showing an above average dividend growth as well as an above average yield.
I would consider selling a stock once it starts decreasing dividends; I won’t sell simply because a company whose stock I already own does not raise its dividend, but I might not add any more fresh money into this position.
My goal is to achieve an above average yield on cost in the future. For example if I had invested $1000 on Dec 31, 1989 in MO ( Altria ) you would have bought 24 shares and had a dividend income in 1990 of $35, and achieved a dividend yield of around 3.5%. If you held your stock until Dec 31, 2006, you would have had a dividend income for 2006 of $239 on 72 shares! That’s an almost 24% annual yield. Your 24 shares would have turned into 72 shares worth $6179 at the end of 2006. Furthermore, if you had reinvested your dividends the $1000 investment in 1989 would have turned into $18,167!

 原文網址:

http://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/2008/01/my-strategy.html

譯文:

我的策略是盡可能投資那些歷年來都能持續增加股息分紅的公司。
依照您投資的時機不同,也有可能沒有符合您條件的公司。
S&P有列出一些值得注意的名單,這些名單中的公司在過去十年中不斷增加其配息,標普「股息新貴」(Dividend Aristocrats)和標普「高收益紅利貴族」(high-yield Dividend Aristocrats.)
更值得注意的是,這兩個名單提供您在過去25年持續增派股息的股票。
請記得我不只是專注於高收益的股票。
當A股的平均收益大概只有2% 卻顯示有10%的股息收益時,市場訊息在透露將有很高的機會您所預期的股息會被削減。我寧願買一支目前只有2-3%收益,卻能為我帶來4.5%-5%收益,並但在未來會增加配息的股票。
尚有其它股息達成指數(dividend achievers)。另一個值得被關注的是 Mergent’s Dividend Achievers 50 ( Mergent 是全球知名的環球企業與財經訊息公司。Mergent’s Dividend Achievers 是一種金融指數,該指數成分股長期以來股息增長。) 和高增長率配息優質股(High-Growth Rate Dividend Achievers.)這些指數提供您至少過去十年增長配息的公司。美國當前最少有300家這樣的公司,對於像我這種小型投資者,這股市相當於翰翰宇宙。標普「股息新貴」(Dividend Aristocrats)和標普「高收益紅利貴族」(high-yield Dividend Aristocrats.)各包含了約50家,提供了一個更便於管理的清單。
我的策略是我會集中購買至少和S&P一樣收益的指數,以SPY指數為代表。
與其它股息達成指數比較起來我會優先考慮標普「股息新貴」(Dividend Aristocrats)和標普「高收益紅利貴族」(high-yield Dividend Aristocrats.)。除此之外,我會尋找購買當時股利發放率(dividend payout ratio)不超過55-60%的股票。
也會試著衡量我購買的股票。打個比方,我每週投資100美金,而手邊有52家符合條件的公司,我會在某一年份內每週購買不同的股票。這並不是在平衡我的投資組合,雖然這會增加我的投資成本,但套一句俗語 ”削減您的損失,並讓您的利潤趁勢爬升”。我會試著跨類股分散投資,避免太偏著重於某類股,如金融或機構那些說來容易但難以實踐的類型。我也會試著找股息平均增長率至少3%。(這是長期平均通膨率)。
不過,我會考慮購買任何呈現增長配息的股票,即便是每年只有一個百分比的幅度攀升,但前提是該公司的收益必須高於平均值。雖然股息的收入成長緩慢,但你投資的錢卻會因為長時間的持有得到很高的複利報酬率。一支好的候選股票股息增長即平均收益應該高於平均水平。
當一支股票開始減少配息我就會開始思考去賣出,但不只是因為配息減少而想要賣出,而是我可能不會再注入任何資金進來投資。
我的目標是在未來可以實現高於水平的收益。舉個例,如果我在1989年12月31日投資1,000美元,你可以買MO (Altria)(奧馳亞集團股) 24股,並在1990年分得35元的股息,相當於3.5%的股息收益率。如果繼續持有到2006年12月31日,你將得到239美元的股息。年收益率相當於24%。在2006年原本的24股增長為72股底價值6,179美元。此外,如果再運用股息來投資,1989年所投資的1,000美元會變成18,167美元。

(譯者:張筱婷)*對於本文之中文翻譯如有任何問題,歡迎來信指正!allenlinp23@gmail.com*

附錄:文章提到的指數以及個股近期表現

標普「股息新貴」(Dividend Aristocrats)

標普「高收益紅利貴族」(high-yield Dividend Aristocrats.)

Mergent’s Dividend Achievers 50

Altria Group Inc. (MO)

奧馳亞集團簡介

        奧馳亞正是大名鼎鼎的煙草巨頭菲利浦·莫裡斯(Philip Morris)的母公司、“萬寶路”香煙品牌的擁有者,也是當今世界卷煙市場的NO.1!

  2003年1月,為了確立一種多元化的經營結構,菲莫正式更名為奧馳亞集團。集團業務領域被清晰地劃分為煙草、食品和金融服務三大塊。其中,煙草方面分為菲利浦·莫裡斯美國公司(Philip Morris U.S.A),及菲利浦·莫裡斯國際公司(Philip Morris International),另有卡夫食品公司及菲利浦·莫裡斯金融服務公司。充滿煙草味的“菲莫”,改用奧馳亞之名,還一度被譴責為“隱型”行為,被認為是為了粉飾“健康殺手”的壞名聲。

  改名為奧馳亞只是菲莫規避矛盾激化的權宜之計,因為一直以來,其最核心的發展驅動力仍然是煙草業務。2004年,占集團總資產60%的食品業務,只帶來了30%的營業利潤;而只占總資產27%的煙草業務,卻貢獻了69%的營業利潤。

  奧馳亞集團自上世紀90年代初開始的一連串併購活動,使其能在美國市場卷煙銷量趨於減少的情況下仍然實現了全球市場卷煙銷量的迅速增加。通過併購擴張,奧馳亞集團作為世界第一大跨國煙草公司的地位得到了進一步的加強和鞏固。數據顯示,2005年,奧馳亞集團全球市場卷煙銷量約9900億支,全球市場占有率達16.8%,其中,“萬寶路”銷量達4705億支,全球市場占有率為7.9%。

(資料來源:MBA財經百科)

風險敬告:
本文撰寫時間為2008年1月,時空背景或與今日不同,本文無推薦投資之用意,請謹慎評估自身投資風險!



小樂

小樂,天蠍座,台南人,喜歡閱讀與寫作,鼓勵散戶們多作投資思維。