Why dividends matter?為何股息重要?

Jonathan from MyMoneyBlog had a pretty good article about why Dow Jones Industrials is not an accurate index to follow. He sites this research paper named The Dow Jones Industrial Average: The Impact of Fixing Its Flaws. Basically this paper shows that if dividends were included in the Dow Jones Industrials, its value would be around 250,000 points in 2000, versus the 9,000 it was trading in 1999!

Jonathan的 MyMoneyBlog上有一篇非常好的文章是關於為什麼道瓊工業指數不是一種精確的追蹤指數。他將這一份研究論文定名為:道瓊斯工業平均指數:修復其缺陷的影響。基本上,本文表明,如果股息被列入道瓊斯工業股,其價值在2000年將約為250,000點,相對於1999年的9000

It is commonly known that it took the market 25 years to recover from its 1929 peak and the Great Depression. However the inclusion of dividends in the index mitigates the effects of the Great Depression. A new all-time high is reached in January 1945 instead of November 1954 if dividends are included.

眾所周知,道瓊工業指數花了25年的時間從1929年的高峰與大蕭條恢復。然而在指數中包含的股息減輕了大蕭條的影響。如果加計股息,道瓊工業指數是在1945年1月達到歷史新高而不是在1954年11月。

To summarize, dividends should be considered an important part of ones portfolio. Financial advisers normally tell you that when you retire, you would be taking a 4% withdrawal rate from your nest egg each year. However, if you can achieve at least a 4% yield, that grows each year to at least cover the rise in inflation you would be able to weather any short-term and long-term weakness in the stock market. I would not recommend having a huge portion of your long-term portfolio in bonds, which are normally sold to retirees as a “safe and reliable source of income". You do get a fixed payment every period or so, but the purchasing power of this payment declines over time. Thus a very good strategy over the long run is to create a diversified portfolio of stocks, that have shows consistency in raising their dividends year after year and which spot an attractive dividend yield.

總之,股息應被考慮為投資組合的重要組成部分。財務顧問通常告訴你,當你退休時,你會每年從你的儲備金中接受4%的提取率。但是,如果你能做到至少4%的收益率,即每年增長到至少覆蓋通貨膨脹的上升,你將能夠抵禦股市任何短期和長期的弱點。我不會建議你在長期投資組合中擁有大量的債券,它們通常是出售給退休人員的“收入安全和可靠的來源”。 (投資債券)每隔一段時間你將會得到固定的收益,但這種收益的購買力會隨著時間的推移而降低。因此,一個很好的策略,從長遠來看是建立一個多元化的投資組合的股票,即逐年提高股息並且察覺有吸引力的股息紅利。

原文出處:
http://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/2008/01/why-dividends-matter.html

(中文翻譯參考google線上翻譯結果修訂而成,本人非專業翻譯人員,翻譯結果可能有錯誤或與原文不符之處!如有錯誤請不吝告知!)

小樂摘記:

本文作者借由道瓊工業指數的例子強調股息報酬對於整體報酬率的影響性,他建議投資人建立一個以股息增長為主的投資組合,而不是投資於固定收益的債券產品,以抵禦通膨並維持購買力!

延伸閱讀:

Four Percent Rule

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/four-percent-rule.asp

为退休储蓄:走错了路

http://article.yeeyan.org/view/239593/207943